Yeah for Yahoo!

Posted by Petrice Gaskin at Apr. 10, 2008

I must admit that I've been following the Yahoo!-Microsoft tussle with soap-opera like interest. Watching the events unfold has had all the delicious components necessary for any successful daytime drama. You have two companies, both aging, and not necessarily gracefully. And you also have Jerry Yang, the founder of Yahoo! fighting to keep his baby from being devoured by the Microsoft behemoth. Yahoo!'s protestations have at time seemed desperate and unconvincing, like a worm wriggling to escape an extremely voracious early-bird. While, throughout it all Microsoft has continued its advancement like a military tank through Tiananmen Square, undeterred by anything or anyone thrown in its path. And, until recently, Microsoft seemed destined to win, but Yahoo! has finally delivered some counter moves to stall Microsoft's advance.

Microsoft first made its aggressive unsolicited bid for Yahoo! in February. Mr. Yang and Yahoo!'s board rejected the offer claiming it was too low. Many industry insiders scoffed and believed Yahoo! was just angling for more time/or money and would eventually fold lovingly into the arms of Microsoft, rather than risk a hostile takeover.

I usually root for the underdog, especially when the odds look insurmountable, and I couldn't help but to feel some sympathy for Yahoo!, though it's hardly an ingenue and largely brought this situation on upon itself by making management decisions that allowed it to weaken to such a point where such an offer might be tenable to its shareholders. Still, something didn't seem "fair" about the whole process, and I found myself silently hoping Yahoo! might pull through.

Yahoo! has postphoned its annual shareholders' meeting and has still yet to set a date. Both Microsoft and Yahoo! have leaked letters to the press, trying to either tempt or soothe shareholders into their respective camps with an assortment of sticks and carrots. Yahoo! even made a rather unconvincing play when it released an investor presentation that predicted the company would double its cash flow in 3 years--a ploy that made most individuals roll their eyes.

I had began to face what I perceived to be the inevitable, eventually Yahoo!'s shareholders would revolt, especially after it rejected Microsoft's bid for a second time and Yahoo! would go gently into that good night. But, for the first time, Yahoo! has made some counter moves that actually have teeth. According to the Wall Street Journal, Yahoo and AOL are close to making a deal, and Yahoo! is going to run a two-week test of Google's AdSense on some of its search pages. Both elements combine to deliver a one-two punch that puts Yahoo! back in the game. This won't necessarily save Yahoo! from Microsoft's hungry jaws, but it could mean that Microsoft will have to dig significantly deeper into its pockets if it wants to pull Yahoo! in. However, if Yahoo!'s quarterly report proves to be strong, Microsoft will have to take its bid home, and seriously reconfigure if they think acquiring Yahoo! will be worth the sweat and effort

Yet, it's important to keep in mind that AOL isn't exactly at the pinnacle of its success. Yahoo's latest defensive move, might prove to only be successful in forcing Microsoft to ante up.